via Economicpolicyjournal.com, Bob Wenzel
UPDATE at bottom of post.
Senior Vice President Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies Function Federal Reserve Bank of New York Dick Peach has responded to my earlier email:
You are correct that several national home price indices have declined to 2002/early 2003 levels. Do you think it is possible that home prices are overshooting to the downside?
Also, I was wondering what metric you used to conclude that home prices were overvalued in 2004 and 2005.
Richard W. Peach
My new response to Mr. Peach:
I didn't use a "metric". That's the key you guys at the Fed, of all places, don't seem to get. I think you fail to understand business cycle theory and your methodology is wrong.
By the Federal Reserve distorting prices through money printing, it's impossible to know what the non-manipulated housing market would look like.There is no "metric" that can tell you. I just knew that at some point you have to slow money printing for a short period for fear of price inflation, which Mr. Bernanke did in the summer of 2008, which crashed the entire damn thing, which I warned about in real time, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here.
My statements have been bold, but they have been correct. I also am on record as seeing the current turnaround well before most. Here's a December post. I have also been warning about a great price inflation that is developing. In all seriousness, since you guys missed the housing bubble, the Great Recession and the turnaround and I have nailed them all in real time, don't you think it is time to have me over for lunch so I can explain why you guys are about to blow the economy up in a price inflation spiral? Or are you happy with your faulty models and what they will do to the country?
UPDATE: Fed economist Richard Peach has graciously invited me to lunch and to give a seminar at the New York Fed.